Để kìm hãm sự nóng lên toàn cầu, khoa học viễn tưởng có thể trở thành sự thật

Để kìm hãm sự nóng lên toàn cầu, khoa học viễn tưởng có thể trở thành sự thật


Bạn còn nhớ “Snowpiercer” (Chuyến Tàu Băng Giá)? Đó là bộ phim kinh dị khoa học viễn tưởng của đạo diễn người Hàn Quốc Bong Joon Ho, nói về nỗ lực nhằm điều chỉnh khí hậu và ngăn chặn sự nóng lên toàn cầu của con người.Tuy nhiên, mọi thứ không như mong muốn và việc tưởng chừng như sẽ mang lại một sự thay đổi tích cực lại trở thành thảm họa khủng khiếp. Hành tinh trở về thời kỳ băng hà, mọi thứ đều đóng băng. Chỉ còn lại những hành khách trên chuyến tàu vô tận chạy vòng quanh lục địa. Những người trong toa đầu tiên được ăn sushi và thưởng thức rượu vang. Trong khi số còn lại phải làm việc vất vả và ăn những thanh protein làm từ gián. Nghe có vẻ bi kịch nhưng hiện nay, các nhà khoa học đã bắt đầu nghiêm túc nghĩ đến phương án đối phó với biến đổi khí hậu theo cách như vậy.

Tin tức về khí hậu đã trở nên đáng báo động trong vài năm trở lại đây, đặc biệt là những tháng vừa qua. Tháng 12 năm ngoái, các nhà khoa học tỏ ra không khỏi ngạc nhiên và tiết lộ rằng nhiệt độ ở một số vùng của Bắc Cực đã tăng hơn 1.7 độ C so với mức trung bình từ đó đến nay. Tháng 3 vừa qua, một số báo cáo cũng cho biết vùng biển băng ở Bắc Cực đã giảm xuống mức thấp nhất kể từ khi được theo dõi đến nay. Đại dương ấm dần lên cũng đã giết chết phần lớn rạn san hô Great Barrier ở Úc. Thực tế hơn một chút, những ảnh hưởng này có thể được làm chậm lại nhờ cách đẩy mạnh phát triển năng lượng mặt trời, năng lượng gió hoặc các nguồn năng lượng tái tạo khác.

Cách đây vài tháng, các học giả thuộc các ngành khoa học xã hội và vật lý quan tâm đến biến đổi khí hậu đã tập trung tại Washington để thảo luận về các phương pháp tiếp cận khác nhau, trong đó gồm có cả việc làm lạnh hành tinh bằng cách bắn những hạt xốp vào tầng bình lưu hoặc gia tăng mức phản chiếu của các đám mây nhằm hắc ánh sáng mặt trời trở lại không gian. Hóa chất sẽ được chuyển lên các máy bay phản lực quân sự, sau đó phun vào bầu khí quyển ở một độ cao nhất định. Mây phía trên biển có thể được làm tăng tính phản xạ nhờ phun vào chúng sương muối được hút từ đại dương.

Hiện tại, mối quan tâm của cả thế giới là làm sao để giảm phát thải khí nhà kínhvà không phá vỡ những lời hứa mà họ đã thống nhất tại hội nghị khí hậu diễn ra ở Paris vào tháng 12/2015. Tuy nhiên, Janos Pasztor, người đứng đầu cơ quan Quản lý Sáng kiến Địa kỹ thuật và Khí hậu Carnegie cho biết: “Thực tế là chúng ta có thể cần nhiều công cụ hơn ngay cả khi chúng ta đạt được những mục tiêu này”.

Để kìm hãm sự nóng lên toàn cầu, khoa học viễn tưởng có thể trở thành sự thật
Làm lạnh hành tinh nhờ các kỹ thuật hiện đại được xem là một giải pháp tiềm năng để đối phó với ấm lên toàn cầu. Nhưng nếu “quá tay”, con người có thể đưa mọi thứ ngoài tầm kiểm soát. (Ảnh: Nziff.co.nz​).

Carbon dioxide mà con người bơm vào bầu khí quyển đã tạo ra những thay đổi nhanh hơn, sâu hơn về khí hậu và hệ sinh thái của thế giới so với dự kiến cách đây không lâu. Theo nhiều nhà khoa học, mặc dù có một số công nghệ giúp cải thiện tình hình nhưng trong nhiêu thập niên tới, bầu khí quyền vẫn ngày càng nóng lên. Lượng khí thải toàn cầu sẽ cắt giảm nhưng không đủ kịp để ngăn cho nhiệt độ không tăng đến mức cực đoan, từ đó tổn hại đến sản lượng cây trồng và giảm sản lượng lương thực ở nhiều nơi trên thế giới. Ngoài ra, lũ lụt sẽ tấn công các thành phố ven biển, cướp đi sinh mạng của hàng triệu người chủ yếu là dân nghèo.

Để có thể giải quyết vấn đề khí hậu, việc cần làm là giảm khí thải nhà kính xuống đến mức 0 và tống khứ một phần nào đó ra khỏi khí quyển. Tại Washington, mặc dù vẫn bày tỏ mối lo ngại về kỹ thuật chỉnh sửa khí hậu (geoengineering), tuy nhiên đa số các nhà khoa học đều nhất trí về việc đẩy mạnh đầu tư vào các nghiên cứu xung quanh lĩnh vực này, không chỉ tập trung vào khả năng làm mát Trái Đất mà còn xét đến những tác động tiềm ẩn đến thành phần hóa học của khí quyển và thời tiết của các vùng khác nhau trên thế giới.

Chúng ta biết rằng kiểm soát bức xạ Mặt Trời có thể làm mát bầu khí quyển, nhưng cho đến nay vẫn còn quá ít các nghiên cứu mô phỏng quá trình này trong phòng thí nghiệm nhằm hiểu hết về cơ chế hoạt động của phương pháp. Các nhà nghiên cứu cho rằng cần có một chương trình quốc tế trong đó bao gồm những cuộc tranh luận mở về mô hình cần thiết để triển khai công nghệ vốn có tác động ngay tức khắc đến đời sống xã hội và tự nhiên trên toàn thế giới. Nói cách khác, kỹ thuật khí hậu cần được xem xét một cách nghiêm túc chứ không phải là khái niệm khoa học viễn tưởng. Có thể nói đó là giải pháp tiềm năng trong việc đối phó với tình trạng nóng lên toàn cầu trong vài thập kỷ tới.

David Keith, nhà vật lý học thuộc Đại học Harvard cho biết: “Ngày nay nó vẫn là một điều cấm kỵ, nhưng điều cấm kỵ này đang dần bị phá vỡ”.

Tất nhiên, một dự án kiểu như thế này chắc chắn sẽ nhận được những ý kiến trái chiều. Lập luận chống lại việc can thiệp vào khí hậu nhờ công nghệ cũng tương tự như làn sóng chống đối sinh vật biến đổi gene hay Frankenfood. Nó dường như đi ngược với tự nhiên. Bỏ qua lập luận trừu tượng đó, một số điều khiến chúng ta hoài nghi về dự án nói trên có thể kể đến như: Hóa chất được phun ra sẽ ảnh hưởng thế nào đến ozone của tầng bình lưu? Mô hình lượng mưa sẽ được thay đổi như thế nào? Chưa hết, liệu các quốc gia trên thế giới có đồng ý với nhau nhằm thực hiện một biện pháp sẽ tạo ra những tác động không giống nhau đến lãnh thổ của từng khu vực? Kỹ thuật khí hậu có chi phí đủ rẻ để ngay cả một quốc gia có thu nhập trung bình cũng có thể triển khai độc lập?

Một số nhà khoa học ước tính rằng việc kiểm soát bức xạ Mặt Trời có thể làm mát Trái Đất một cách nhanh chóng và chi phí cho việc này là khoảng 5 tỷ USD mỗi năm. Theo Scott Barrett, một nhà kinh tế học môi trường thuộc Đại học Columbia, người đã có mặt tại cuộc họp ở Washington: “Thách thức lớn nhất của kỹ thuật khí hậu không phải là kỹ thuật mà liên quan đến cách chúng ta quản lý việc sử dụng công nghệ chưa từng có này”. Những cân nhắc về đạo đức phải được tính đến trong bất kỳ chương trình nghiên cứu nào.

Alan Robock, nhà khí hậu học của trường đại học Rutgers từng cho rằng trong tình huống xấu nhất, công nghệ tinh chỉnh khí hậu có thể dẫn đến một cuộc chiến tranh hạt nhân. Tuy vậy, cũng không bởi vì lý do này hay bất cứ lý do nào mà ngừng tiến hành các nghiên cứu về công nghệ mới. Việc can thiệp vào tự nhiên có thể là một ý tưởng tồi bởi nhiều lý do, nhưng chỉ những nghiên cứu mới cho chúng ta biết điều gì sẽ thực sự xảy ra.


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