Trái đất nóng lên 2 độ C sẽ để lại hậu quả tệ hơn việc nóng lên chỉ 1,5 độ C nhiều, tại sao vậy?

Trái đất nóng lên 2 độ C sẽ để lại hậu quả tệ hơn việc nóng lên chỉ 1,5 độ C nhiều, tại sao vậy?


Như đã ký kết trong Hiệp định Paris, các nước đồng ý đều hướng tới một mục tiêu duy nhất: giữ cho nhiệt độ trung bình toàn cầu không tăng thêm 2 độ C nữa, cố gắng chỉ để nhiệt độ tăng 1,5 độ C mà thôi.


Cách biệt 0,5 độ C có vẻ không nhiều phải không? Nỗ lực chống biến đổi khí hậu của chúng ta liệu có xứng đáng với chỉ cách biệt 0,5 độ C không? Thực tình, đây là một câu hỏi khó trả lời. Dù đã có những nghiên cứu cho thấy cách biệt nhiệt độ lớn, ví dụ như tăng 2 hay 4 độ C có thể khiến thảm họa toàn cầu tệ hại mức nào (đợt nóng cực độ, nước biển dâng, nguồn nước và nguồn lương thực bị ảnh hưởng, …) nhưng chưa có nghiên cứu nào cho thấy tăng 1,5 độ C và 2 độ C ảnh hưởng tới thế giới như thế nào.

Trái đất nóng lên 2 độ C sẽ để lại hậu quả tệ hơn việc nóng lên chỉ 1,5 độ C nhiều, tại sao vậy?

May mắn là nghiên cứu mới trên tạp chí Earth System Dynamics đã trực tiếp trả lời câu hỏi này cho chúng ta. Đội ngũ các nhà nghiên cứu tại CarbonBrief đã cho thấy sự khác biệt giữa hai con số, của cách biệt 0,5 độ C lớn nhường nào:

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Ở một số địa điểm cụ thể, việc tăng 2 độ C sẽ tệ hơn nhiều việc chỉ tăng 1,5 độ C.

Độ nóng cực điểm sẽ thay đổi. Nhiệt độ toàn cầu tăng 0,5 độ C sẽ gây ra những thay đổi nhiệt độ rõ rệt, nhất là tại những khu vực nhiệt đới.

Tại vùng Địa Trung Hải, lượng nước ngọt có sẵn sẽ giảm mạnh ở mức 17% khi nhiệt độ toàn cầu tăng thêm 2 độ C. Khi nhiệt độ chỉ tăng ít, 1,5 độ C, lượng nước ngọt sẽ chỉ giảm 9%.

Một số khu vực nằm tại vùng Vĩ độ cao sẽ được hưởng lợi khi nhiệt độ tăng 2 độ C, tuy nhiên toàn bộ những điểm lợi ấy sẽ sớm bị xóa sổ nếu như nhiệt độ toàn cầu tiếp tục tăng. Nhưng ở những địa điểm khác, ví dụ như Tây Phi, Đông Nam Á hay Trung và Nam Mỹ, khi nhiệt độ tăng thêm 2 độ C, sản lượng lúa và ngô sẽ giảm đáng kể.

b7X6PtN

Biểu đồ trên cùng cho thấy biến đổi khi nhiệt độ toàn cầu tăng 2 độ C. Biểu đồ thứ hai cho thấy biến đổi khi nhiệt độ toàn cầu tăng 1,5 độ C. Biểu đồ thứ ba là chồng hai biểu đồ trên vào để so sánh.

Tại mức tăng 2 độ C, mực nước biển sẽ dâng cao nhiều hơn 2 cm so với mức tăng 1,5 độ C.

Rạn san hô sẽ không gặp chút may mắn nào khi nhiệt độ tăng: chúng sẽ đối mặt với nạn diệt vong. Khi nhiệt độ toàn cầu tăng 1,5 độ C, vào năm 2050, 90% rạn san hô hiện tại sẽ gặp nguy hiểm nhưng sẽ giảm xuống còn 70% vào năm 2100. Nhưng trong trường hợp nhiệt độ toàn cầu tăng 2 độ C, gần như toàn bộ rạn san hô hiện tại sẽ đứng bên bờ tuyệt chủng.

Trong năm nay, nhóm nghiên cứu về mức độ ảnh hưởng của “chỉ 0,5 độ C” sẽ hoàn thành báo cáo của mình, nhưng các nhà khoa học hiện tại đã xác nhận và cảnh báo rằng mức 2 độ C không phải là mức an toàn cho Trái đất nữa: đã xuất hiện những ảnh hưởng xấu tới môi trường và càng ngày, mọi chuyện sẽ càng tệ hơn.

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Khói bụi nhà máy là một trong những nguyên nhân khiến nhiệt độ Trái đất tăng lên.

Việc dừng việc nóng lên toàn cầu ở mức 1,5 độ C cần một hành động mang tính toàn cầu

Không còn lâu nữa là nhiệt độ toàn cầu đạt mốc 1,5 độ. Ta không thể tính chính xác được là lúc nào, chỉ có thể đưa ra các biện pháp khắc phục càng sớm càng tốt thôi. Tại mức xả khí thải như hiện tại, khoảng 4 năm nữa là đạt tới mốc tăng 1,5 độ C. Cứ càng trì hoãn hành động, ta lại càng đẩy hàng triệu người tại vùng nhiệt đới vào cảnh thiếu thực phẩm và hàng triệu người Địa Trung Hải vào cảnh thiếu nước ngọt.

Hiện tại, ta đã để mất nhiều phần rạn san hô vào tay biến đổi khí hậu và kèm theo đó, đẩy hàng trăm loài sinh vật sống dựa vào đó tới bờ diệt vong.

Rồi đến lúc nhiệt độ toàn cầu đạt giới hạn tăng 1,5 độ, lúc đó rồi sao? Ta sẽ lại cân nhắc xem để mốc giới hạn tiếp theo sẽ là tăng 2 hay tăng 3 độ C. Rồi những đợt nóng kinh hoàng mới, lượng lương thực và nước ngọt lại giảm, các thành phố ven biển lại chịu hậu quả, dịch bệnh nổ ra sẽ đi kèm thảm họa, hàng triệu người sẽ lâm nguy.

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Không còn lâu nữa là nhiệt độ toàn cầu đạt mốc 1,5 độ.

Rồi đến lúc đạt mốc đó, ta sẽ làm gì?

Ta càng đợi chờ lâu, hạnh phúc sẽ càng biến mất, càng có thêm nhiều hậu quả xuất hiện, hệ sinh thái Trái Đất càng bị tàn phá. Ta chẳng thể trốn đi đâu được vì chỉ có mỗi Trái Đất là nhà, nếu không chăm cho ngôi nhà chung của mình, nhân loại sẽ đi đâu?

Điều thông thái nhất mà ta nên làm đó là biến Trái Đất thành một nơi sinh sống phù hợp cho những thế hệ người tiếp theo – Một thứ di sản cho con cháu. Nhiều người không hiểu rằng ta đang không cứu lấy hành tinh, mà là nhân loại đang cứu lấy chính mình và các thế hệ kế tiếp.


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