Giải mã trùng tang khiến hàng triệu người sợ hãi

Giải mã trùng tang khiến hàng triệu người sợ hãi


Đây là hiện tượng gây bất an cho hàng ngàn, hàng vạn gia đình lâu nay, mỗi khi gia đình có tang, nhất là sau những cái tang bất thình lình do tai nạn, bệnh tật hiểm nghèo…

Bị các “thầy bói” dọa về “giờ trùng kiếp sát”, có khả năng nhiều người sẽ chết theo người xấu số, nhiều gia đình đã rước lo vào người, tốn kém tiền bạc vô ích để cầu cúng.

Đại tá, TS Đỗ Kiên Cường, giảng viên Bộ môn Vật lý của Đại học Y khoa Phạm Ngọc Thạch, TP.HCM đã có những lý giải về vấn đề này.
Quan niệm dân gian ám ảnh con người

Theo quan niệm dân gian, hiện tượng trùng tang là hiện tượng một gia đình có người nhà chết đúng vào các giờ trùng, rơi vào kiếp sát (Dần, Thân, Tỵ, Hợi), sau đó lần lượt những người thân của người đó cũng chết theo cho đến khi số người chết đủ 3, 5, 7 hoặc 9 người.

Chẳng hạn một gia đình chia sẻ như sau: Gia đình họ có người anh trai chết đúng vào giờ Dần, ngày Dần, chưa qua 49 ngày thì mẹ mất. Một năm sau cậu em út cũng tử vong do tai nạn. Gia đình khiếp sợ và đi xem bói thì họ bảo là bị “trùng tang”.

Cầu cúng để hóa giải trùng tang chỉ để tâm lý người sống thoải mái hơn – (Ảnh minh họa).

Dân gian cũng cho rằng nguồn cơn của thảm họa này là do “âm binh” nổi loạn, vì vậy cách duy nhất để hóa giải là phải nhốt “trùng” (nhốt vong). Người ta đồn đoán chùa Hàm Long (Thuận Thành, Bắc Ninh) là nơi nhốt trùng lớn nhất cả nước (!). Và mỗi gia đình khi gửi vong đến đây sẽ được phát bùa để đeo trong vòng ba năm nhằm tránh họa. Thực tế, hầu hết những gia đình có người mới mất đều đi xem vong, và đeo hoặc dán các loại bùa chú này ở nhà.

Sự trùng hợp tạo sự hoảng sợ

Theo quan điểm của ngành thống kê học, trùng tang chỉ đơn giản là sự trùng hợp mang tính ngẫu nhiên. Sự trùng hợp giữa các sự biến ngẫu nhiên xảy ra thường xuyên hơn sự hình dung của người bình thường như chúng ta.

Bách khoa thư các hiện tượng dị thường, xuất bản năm 1996 tại Mỹ, trong mục Trùng hợp nhấn mạnh: “Sự trùng hợp xuất hiện thường xuyên trong cuộc sống hàng ngày. Chúng khiến chúng ta vui sướng, bối rối và sửng sốt. Chúng gây phiền nhiễu và tạo sự hoảng sợ… Chúng có thể thay đổi cuộc sống của chúng ta; nơi chúng ta làm việc; người chúng ta chung sống; và nhiều đặc trưng cơ bản của cuộc sống hàng ngày có vẻ dựa trên sự trùng hợp”.

Vậy bản chất của sự trùng hợp là gì? Đó là luật số lớn trong lý thuyết xác suất và thống kê. Định luật này phát biểu đơn giản như sau: Với một mẫu xét đủ lớn, bất kỳ hiện tượng kỳ lạ nào cũng có thể xảy ra.

Năm 1953, nhà toán học Littlewood cho rằng, một hiện tượng được xem là hiếm gặp đến mức gây ngạc nhiên khi có xác suất 1/1.000.000 (một trên một triệu). Chẳng hạn trúng xổ số giải độc đắc khi quay với 6 số chính là một hiện tượng đáng ngạc nhiên, vì có xác suất đúng bằng như vậy. Tuy nhiên nếu xổ số được quay hàng ngày, với dân số gần 90 triệu người như nước ta hiện nay, hiện tượng được xem là hiếm gặp đến mức gây ngạc nhiên đó cũng xảy ra 90 lần một ngày, tức hơn 30.000 lần một năm trên toàn cõi Việt Nam. Ngay cả khi nó chỉ xảy ra hàng tháng, kết quả cũng là 1.000 lần một năm. Còn với 7 tỷ người trên toàn hành tinh, cái sự kiện “hiếm gặp”đó sẽ xảy ra như cơm bữa!

Với các hiện tượng hiếm gặp hơn nữa thì sao? Chẳng hạn một người đàn bà người Mỹ đã hai lần trúng số đặc biệt tại New Jersey trong vòng bốn tháng. Nếu mỗi lần người thắng chỉ mua một vé, xác suất của sự biến đó chỉ là 1 trên 17 ngàn tỷ. Vậy tại sao nó đã xảy ra?

Câu trả lời vẫn là luật số lớn. Với một người, xác suất chỉ là 1 trên 17 ngàn tỷ. Nhưng với 300 triệu người Mỹ trong vòng 120 ngày, xác suất trúng số độc đắc kép chỉ là 1 trên 30, một con số khá lớn để có thể xảy ra không ít lần trong cuộc sống.

Với các hiện tượng trùng hợp khác, sự xuất hiện còn thường xuyên hơn nữa. Chúng ta cần bao nhiêu người để hai trong số đó có ngày sinh trùng nhau? Một năm có 365 ngày, nên chúng ta có thể nghĩ tới con số 366 người. Tuy nhiên tạp chí Người Mỹ khoa học đã tính toán và đưa ra câu trả lời là 23 người. Chúng ta có thể rất ngạc nhiên, nhưng các phép tính cho thấy, chỉ 23 người là đủ để xác suất của sự trùng hợp đó lớn hơn 0,5 – một con số đảm bảo nó sẽ xảy ra hơn là không xảy ra. Và sự trùng hợp về thời tiết giữa hai ngày kế tiếp nhau (tiên đoán “thời tiết ngày mai giống hôm nay”) có xác suất lớn đến mức, nó xảy ra 70 trong 100 lần dự báo, tức có xác suất 0,7 – một con số rất lớn về mặt thống kê.

Quay trở lại sự trùng tang, người viết không đưa ra xác suất chính xác của sự trùng hợp giữa ngày và giờ “sát” theo quan niện dân gian. Nhưng với dân số cả nước lên tới gần 90 triệu người như nước ta, với khoảng thời gian dài tới 1.000 ngày (gần 3 năm), theo luật số lớn, chắc chắn nó là con số lớn đến mức, sự “trùng tang” xảy ra nhiều đến mức đủ làm khiếp sợ không ít gia đình. Tuy nhiên xin hãy bình tĩnh, đó chỉ là sự trùng hợp ngẫu nhiên mà thôi.

Quan trọng là tâm lý thoải mái

Có thể có thực tế là những gia đình sau khi người thân mất, nếu tổ chức cầu cúng sẽ tránh được sự trùng tang?

Sự cầu cúng chỉ là yếu tố tâm lý. Nhờ các hoạt động cầu cúng (như nhốt “vong”) mà những người đang hoảng sợ sẽ tĩnh tâm trở lại, khiến họ bình tĩnh hơn trong mọi tình huống. Và cũng một phần do tâm hồn đã thư thái trở lại, tâm lý thoải mái, diễn tiến của các căn bệnh có thể gây tử vong cũng sẽ tốt hơn. Theo kiến thức về y khoa tùy theo mặt bệnh mà yếu tố tâm lý có thể ảnh hưởng từ 9 đến 40% tổng số người bệnh. Y học cho rằng niềm tin có thể giúp con người khỏe mạnh hơn về thể chất và tinh thần là vì vậy…

Tuy nhiên, niềm tin phổ biến “có thờ có thiêng, có kiêng có lành” nên hiểu theo quan điểm đúng đắn của môn tâm lý học hiện đại, chứ không phải theo các quan điểm siêu hình từ hàng ngàn năm trước, khi hiểu biết của con người còn rất sơ khai, mông muội.

Hiểu biết một cách đúng đắn dưới góc độ khoa học sẽ chiến thắng được nỗi sợ hão huyền về “trùng tang”. Và đó là cách tốt nhất để có tâm lý thoải mái đối phó với mọi tình huống có thể xảy ra trong cuộc sống “vô thường”.


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